The unthinkable happened last night: There was an assassination attempt on Donald Trump at a campaign event in Pennsylvania. Fortunately, the presidential candidate only appears to have suffered a gunshot wound to the ear. However, one participant died at the scene and two others were injured.
As Bitcoin, unlike the traditional financial markets, also trades over the weekend, some market participants observed the asset's price reaction to the shocking event. Bitcoin rose significantly in the hours following the assassination, leading to lively discussions in the Bitcoin community about supposed correlations.
Even the renowned news channel Bloomberg ran the headline "Bitcoin Hits $60,000 as Trump Shooting Boosts Re-Election Odds".
Assassination attempt on Donald Trump
In the first few minutes of Donald Trump's appearance in Pennsylvania, shots are suddenly heard. After the second one, the 78-year-old grabs his ear and ducks down while several Secret Service employees rush to him to offer protection. Shortly afterwards, the information is heard that the shooter has been neutralized. Trump stands up again, bleeding from the ear, and raises his fist in the air. The Secret Service employees then escort the presidential candidate to the protected car in which Trump is driven away.
The assassin injured three participants in addition to Trump with his shots - one of them fatally. The likely next US president would also have been a hair's breadth away. However, according to his press spokesperson, he is doing well. Trump himself spoke out on the Truth Social platform. "I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear", the 78-year-old wrote last night.
According to the betting markets, Donald Trump's election to the White House in November has become much more likely after this historic event. Surviving an assassination attempt seems to have prompted citizens to support the person more strongly. Not least because such an act generally reflects badly on political enemies, who are often blamed for politically motivated violence.
In 1981, for example, there was an assassination attempt on the then US President Ronald Reagan. Reagan survived and was re-elected with an even larger majority in the following election.
Trump's election victory priced in?
In the initial reaction to the assassination, Bitcoin fell briefly, only to rise significantly immediately afterwards when it looked as though Trump would survive. Since then, the Bitcoin price has risen by around 2.5% - to over 60,000 US dollars.
As the presidential candidate has marketed himself as a "pro-Bitcoin president" in recent weeks, it is reasonable to assume that the Bitcoin price correlates with the likelihood of Trump becoming the next US president. This is also the argument of the news channel Bloomberg, which suggests a clear correlation here.
Bitcoin rose above $60,000 after Donald Trump’s defiant response to an assassination attempt spurred speculation that his chances of winning the presidential election have climbed.
From the Bloomberg article
Some in the Bitcoin community also interpreted the price increase as a reaction to the higher probability of the ex-president winning the election in less than four months.
Based on Bitcoin's reaction so far, looks like markets are going to begin pricing in a full Trump victory-
Will (@WClementeIII) July 13, 2024
However, Bitcoin was unable to benefit when Donald Trump won the TV duel against his opponent Joe Biden, according to popular opinion. In response, the betting markets were much more certain that Trump would become the next president, but Bitcoin only traded sideways.
Chaos boosts Bitcoin price?
Bitcoin's price reaction has been the subject of much discussion during the night. Caitlin Long, CEO of Custodia Bank, suggested that there could also be a connection between chaos and a rising Bitcoin price.
* Chaos.
Caitlin Long 🔑⚡️🟠 (@CaitlinLong_) July 13, 2024
* #bitcoin up in reaction pic.twitter.com/iYIBPi7pI9-
However, there is no clear pattern yet as to how the Bitcoin price behaves in the face of uncertainty. In response to the coronavirus lockdowns and Iran's attack on Israel a few months ago, Bitcoin fell sharply. On the other hand, Bitcoin benefited briefly when Russia invaded Ukraine. This was also the case with Hamas' terrorist attack on Israel in October last year. Larry Fink, CEO of asset manager BlackRock, interpreted the fact that Bitcoin was able to gain at that time as a "flight to quality".
As some market participants still seem to find it difficult to classify Bitcoin as an asset, it is extremely relevant how the price behaves in the face of chaos. Whether Bitcoin is seen as the "digital gold" that profits during crises or whether it is merely a "risk-on asset" that only performs well during positive market phases is a frequent topic of discussion.
It may depend on the nature of the chaos. When several US banks went bankrupt in March 2023, for example, and panic spread, Bitcoin gained more than 40% in just a few days. In this case, bitcoin was probably the obviously safer alternative to the fragile US banking system, which is why investors apparently wanted to keep their money safe via bitcoin.
Future events of this kind will have to be monitored in order to determine whether and when Bitcoin really acts like the "safe haven" that so many see in the asset.
Trump not coming to the Bitcoin conference after all?
Whether Trump will appear at the largest Bitcoin conference in Nashville in less than two weeks as announced is unclear after yesterday's event. It is possible that not only the physical and mental condition of the 78-year-old after the attack plays a role here, but also security concerns that such an incident could happen again.
However, as the ex-president likes to present himself as a fighter, it is probably not out of the question that he will continue his election campaign as soon as possible.
Addendum
In a post on Truth Social on Sunday afternoon, Trump announced that he is looking forward to speaking in Wisconsin, where the Republican National Convention is taking place next week. Accordingly, there is a good chance that the presidential candidate will also be present in Nashville on July 27, despite the attempted murder.
Shortly afterwards, David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc, the company behind the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, also confirmed that Donald Trump will be there.
I have just spoken with the President's team. He is in good spirits and is excited to see you all in Nashville and deliver a speech that is heard around the world.
- David Bailey🇵🇷 $0.65mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) July 14, 2024
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